Dein erstes Forum » Lavezzi outshone Ibrahimovic

Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Toronto Raptors Store . Villarreals victory in Valencia kept it in fourth place and in control of Spains last Champions League spot. Uche broke free in the area in the 10th minute and was brought down by goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who was shown a direct red card. Raptors Jerseys 2020 . You can watch the game live on TSN2 and TSN Mobile TV at 9pm et/6pm pt. Jonathan Huberdeau and Quinton Howden are expected to make their debuts for Team Canada. https://www.cheapraptors.com/. Peko, a fourth-round pick in 2006, started all 16 games and a playoff loss to San Diego last season. He was second on the line with 72 tackles and had a career-high three sacks. Wholesale Raptors Jerseys .Y. - Through three quarters, the Brooklyn Nets could not shake the NBAs worst team. Cheap Raptors Jerseys . The 10-year deal the league and players agreed to that ended the 2011 lockout gave either side the right to opt out after six years. With the league projecting financial growth, there has been speculation that players will take that option in three years, especially since a new national TV contract will be in place by then.PARIS -- Chelsea coach Jose Mourinho called his teams defending "a joke" after Paris Saint-Germain scored deep into injury time Wednesday to take a commanding 3-1 lead into their Champions League quarterfinal return leg next week. A second straight defeat has turned the pressure back on Mourinhos Chelsea side, with big-spending PSG now favoured to reach the last four in the European Cup for the first time since 1995 and Liverpool grabbing the impetus in the Premier League. "When the games are tight and when you make the defensive mistakes, you are in trouble," Mourinho said. "We couldnt transform these half chances into goals and on top of that we made defensive mistakes, the kind of individual defensive mistakes, and we paid the price." PSG substitute Javier Pastore capped the win with a brilliant goal in stoppage time. The Argentina playmaker gathered the ball on the right wing, cut inside and then jinked his way through the penalty area before planting a low shot inside goalkeeper Petr Cechs near post. "It was a horrible time to concede," centre half Gary Cahill told British broadcaster Sky Sports. "Its a sloppy goal and unlike us. It was difficult to come here; 2-1 would have been okay to take to Stamford Bridge. Its devastating." Mourinho was more scathing. "He (Cahill) says sloppy. I say ridiculous," later adding. "Its not a goal, its a joke." He also criticized his forwards, with neither Andre Schuerrle or his replacement, Fernando Torres, making any impression in the absence of the injured Samuel Etoo. "Its difficult for us to score goals," Mourinho said. "Im not happy with my strikers performances and I have to try things (for the return leg)." Chelsea did well to contain Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSGs top scorer with more than 40 goals this season. But Jose Mourinhos team was undone by lapses from captain John Terry and midfielder David Luiz, who gave the ball away leading up to the opening goal. It came after only four minutes when Ezequiel Lavezzi twisted to sweep the ball home after Terrys poor headed clearance. Eden Hazard equalized from the penalty spot midway through the first half, only for PSG to take the lead again in the 61st as Luiz shinned the ball into his own net. Chelsea won the competition two years ago, although Mourinho was not in charge, getting past Napoli despite losing their quarterfinal first leg 3--1.dddddddddddd. "I have nothing to lose now, I have to play thinking that it is possible," Mourinho said. "To be fair, I dont think Paris think that its done." PSG coach Laurent Blanc was full of praise for his players. "We really believed we could do it tonight, and we pushed Chelsea around at times," he said. "The third goal changes things. We cant say tonight how much it changes things. The match at Stamford Bridge will be difficult." There was some bad news on the night for PSG, however, with Ibrahimovic limping off midway through the second half with a hamstring injury. "He will probably be out for a while," Blanc said. "I hope hell be back as soon as possible." In Wednesdays other quarterfinal first leg, Real Madrid beat last seasons finalist Borussia Dortmund 3-0 in Spain. PSG started aggressively and scored when Terry failed to deal properly with Blaise Matuidis cross and his header fell to Lavezzi some 15 metres out. The Argentina winger swiveled brilliantly before planting the ball into the top left corner for his 10th goal of the season. Chelsea struggled to deal with PSGs speed on the break, and midfielder Ramires was shown a yellow card after hacking down Lavezzi as he turned away from him near the halfway line. Ramires misses the return leg next week. Lavezzi caused Cahill constant problems with his pace. Midway through the half, Lavezzi got away from him down the left but his shot hit the side of the net. Chelsea equalized against the run of play in the 27th minute when Brazil centre half Thiago Silva lunged in a fraction too late and clipped midfielder Oscars leg. It was surprisingly rash judgment from Silva, the Brazil captain, who is considered one of the best defenders in the world. With the jeers from the Parc des Princes crowd ringing in his ears, ice-cool Hazard sent goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu guessing the wrong way. Lavezzi had another effort saved by Cech, but the home side nearly fell behind in the 40th minute when Hazards brilliantly controlled volley from wide left hit the right post. Lavezzi outshone Ibrahimovic and his looping free kick caused panic in the Chelsea defence and Luiz clumsily knocked the ball over the line. Worse was still to come for a ramshackle Chelsea defence that will need a vast improvement to stop PSG scoring an away goal next week that would surely put the tie beyond the Blues reach. ' ' '